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Prediction for CME (2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2024-05-08T19:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30612/-1 CME Note: [IN REVIEW] This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in STEREO A COR2 for a few frames prior to and following a data gap lasting from 2024-05-08T19:53Z to 2024-05-09T01:53Z. The source is a filament eruption near Active Region 13667 (S26E22) starting around 2024-05-08T08:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Filament material can be seen against the backdrop of the East limb as the material continues to leave the field of view in SDO AIA 304 around 19:35Z. A large dimming area is seen in SDO AIA 193 at this time, which appears to move southwest of the eruption site. Additionally, some post-eruptive arcades are seen in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 20:00Z. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T16:36Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T06:51Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Prediction Method Note: ## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Psyche, STEREO A, Lucy, Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-09T16:39:40Z ## Message ID: 20240509-AL-005 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. ## Summary: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. Start time of the event: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. Estimated speed: ~828 km/s. Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg. Direction (lon./lat.): -23/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates. Activity ID: 2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001 Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Psyche (glancing blow), STEREO A, and Lucy (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2024-05-11T06:45Z, and the flank of the CME may reach Psyche at 2024-05-15T20:00Z and Lucy at 2024-05-14T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-11T06:42Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong). Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-05-08T19:12:00-CME-001): (a) 2 AU outer boundary http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif (b) 5.5 AU outer boundary http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240508_232700_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif ## Notes: SCORE CME typification system: S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s C-type: Common 500-999 km/s O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer Data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and/or compiled by CCMC DONKI, and distributes it "as is". Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information stored within the CCMC DONKI does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property. The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.Lead Time: 23.95 hour(s) Difference: -14.25 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-05-09T16:39Z |
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